The central bank for the second time retained the key rate of 21%

“The basic scenario to return inflation to the meta will require a longer period to maintain strict monetary conditions in the economy, which was predicted in October. According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, taking into account the monetary policy carried out, the annual inflation will decrease to 7-8% in 2025, it will return to 4% in 2026 and will be in targets in the future, ”said the statement.

According to him, the Central Bank allows an increase in the rate at the next meeting on March 21, will decide “take into account the speed and stability of inflation reduction.”

Most experts and analysts surveyed by RB.RU expected the Central Bank to maintain a rate of 21%. “To move on to the softening of monetary policy, conditions have not yet been developed. It is important that the Bank of Russia has a fresh demand and has a restrictive influence on inflation, ”said Yevgeny Goryunov, head of the Gaidar Institute’s monetary policy laboratory.

The director of the Department of Operations in the financial markets of the Russian standard bank, Maxim Tymoshenko, said that the option with a decrease in the central bank rate is not even considered. “The regulator is extremely clearly” communicates “with the market that the high rate with us for a long time and the economy should adapt to it,” said the expert.

At the same time, the chief economist of Ilya Fedorov, Ilya Fedorov, made a decrease in the key rate in July with a basic script or in April, “if a deceleration in the economy is faster than the Russian bank expects.” “The key rate for the end of the year can be reduced to 16%,” he added.

The key rate lasts 21% since October 2024, when the Central Bank raised it immediately in 200 PB, to the maximum historical. The regulator made such a decision in the context of the acceleration of inflation.

At a meeting on December 20, the Central Bank retained the rate at the same level, although most analysts and market participants were waiting for a new increase. Then, the Russia Bank explained that “hardening the monetary conditions in Russia” as a result of the October decision “turned out to be more significant” than planned. In the coming months, “the inflationary pressure will begin to decrease”, so no greater adjustment is required, added to the Central Bank.