According to 2019 data, only 0.2% of satellites in low Earth orbit performed more than ten collision avoidance maneuvers per month. By 2025, this figure had risen to 1.4%; This is a 7-fold increase affecting approximately 340 satellites that spend a lot of time and energy on such maneuvers. The total number of satellites in low Earth orbit increased by 76%, from 13,700 in 2019 to 24,185 by 2025. Industry estimates suggest the number of spacecraft will reach 70,000 by the end of the decade.
The study is based on data from the US Space Command. According to the data, frequent evasive maneuvers are becoming increasingly complex and ineffective. Different operators have different thresholds for initiating evasive maneuvers, and SpaceX is more cautious than NASA. Frequent maneuvers can negatively impact satellite performance and even increase the risk of collision due to tracking errors and orbit changes.
Source: Ferra
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