The ceiling price is $100/barrel for diesel oil and $45/barrel for fuel oil. At the same time, Putin instructed countries that set price ceilings not to supply oil.
The exchange rate of the ruble is directly affected by how much the exporters’ income will decrease. So far, exports of petroleum products to EU countries have remained high – about 0.6 million barrels per day. According to Bloomberg Economics economist Alexander Isakov, in a conservative scenario it will be possible to find new markets for half of this volume. As a result, we can expect the rate to decline to 71.5 rubles per dollar in March.
Evgeny Nadorshi, chief economist at PF Capital, believes that impressive amounts of trade surplus will be eliminated in the future and capital outflow from the country will not decrease and will have a stronger effect on the exchange rate. According to the analyst’s baseline scenario, the ruble rate will fall to 80 per dollar during the year. Mikhail Vasilyev from Sovcombank partially agrees with him. He believes that with the average annual rate gradually falling to 75-77 rubles, it will be about 73 rubles per dollar.
Natalia Lavrova, chief economist at BCS World of Investments, said the sanctions are working. “The resilience of the economy discussed at the end of last year can be largely explained by the relatively light sanctions burden – key sectors of the economy have only been affected since December of last year,” he added.
According to the most pessimistic scenario put forward by Anton Prokudin, chief macroeconomist of Ingosstrakh-Investments Management Company, the ruble could fall to 80-90 per dollar during the year.
Source: Ferra
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