We are buying fewer smartphones than ever before. And this is not only because of the current economic situation. The medium-term view shows how since 2017, global mobile phone sales have stagnated and are on a downward trend.
Focusing on the near future, consulting company IDC recently published a new drop in sales of these devices in the same year. Specifically, we are talking about a fall of 9.7% year on year to 301.9 million units in the third quarter of this course. The drop marks the biggest drop in history in the third quarter and the fifth straight for the market. So far, all quarters are down about 10% in 2022.
If we expand the plan, as a result, from 2017 the trend will decrease from more than 1500 million devices sold worldwide to only about 1300. The worst year in this series was 2020 understandably, when a significant portion of the population refrained from consuming due to uncertainty when it wasn’t possible if it wasn’t done online. But with data provided by IDC and estimates also provided by Counterpoint, 2022 could be a new low.
At the manufacturer level, only Apple resisted with 1.6% year-on-year growth in the last quarter analyzed. The rest fall.
Now, what do we attribute this to?
From IDC itself, they download reasons in the current economic context marked by inflation and falling sales, especially in Asia, pointing to Chinese suppliers as the hardest hit.
“Most of the decline has occurred in emerging markets, where lack of demand, rising costs and inflation have impacted consumers with lower disposable incomes,” they explained in a statement.
Between price and lack of innovation
Of course, the economic context must be taken into account, as well as the setbacks that major manufacturers such as Huawei have experienced in recent years. But there are others associated, such as price increases associated with innovation, that are not too noticeable.due to which the need to update the device may decrease.
The advent of foldable smartphones over the past two years has added color to the range of possibilities, but the mobile phone as a device hasn't made a really important leap forward for a long time.
A journey through the already vast history of these devices marks every 5/8 years there is a big change in format or design. From the first phones to those that had the kocha format, blackberrythe first iPhone, the so-called phablets and the introduction of a screen with fewer frames. The foldable phone seems to be a new leap, which, however, does not seem to have found application yet, or perhaps not.
Here you can see the evolution of these formats, represented by the best-selling models over the years.
Lack of innovative competitors in the smartphone market
On the other hand, the market is also stagnant for several years without the emergence of a new disruptive competitor. Today, the great dominants are Apple and Samsung with a market share of about 20%. and it depends on their releases. However, this worldwide dichotomy was not such 20 years ago. Then it was Nokia that sold 3 out of 10 phones, almost leaving its 3310 as a kind of easter egg of its dominance.
By the way, Chinese phones have emerged since 2010 outside of their market to provide new opportunities. Now, Chinese mobile phones control their market share, but the new act hasn't been in the fray for a long time. Nothing can be one? Who knows. At the moment, even Google Pixels has failed to become a significant player, not to mention the innovation engine in the market that has supplanted giants like Microsoft.
Nokia maintained its global market dominance for much of the next decade. The company reached 40% market share in 2007, but by then the Finnish giant was showing signs of major problems. Its line of experimental 3G phones didn't have the success and popularity that Nokia had hoped for, but the real problem was the Symbian operating system, which was left behind with the advent of the iPhone and the advent of Android.
Unlike Apple, Nokia underestimated the importance of software in the age of digital phones. Nokia's hardware was so rugged that it spawned its own memes, but its app support was soon found to be missing.
Let's see if the bear market encourages innovation. In a sense, the arrival of the first iPhone also came before a dramatic economic context (just before the 2008 crisis) and when mobile phones of the time seemed to find a comfortable environment that they couldn't get out of.
Source: Hiper Textual
