results of municipal and regional elections in Spain were a surprise to many people. The rightists covered almost the entire map, especially People’s Party (PP). But VOX also remains at a stage where the government needs many PP representatives. With these results, we all bring out our personal bias. People with a leftist ideology don’t understand how there can be so many right-wing voters, and the right-wingers see it as logical. But, on the other hand, there are surveys, the results of which in some cases are not carried out.
All this can be explained mathematics and psychology. The first, with the help of graph theory, reveals our personal biases. Although the second one can explain why sometimes surveys are not performed.
And the fact is that not everyone votes for what is written in them. In fact, not everyone votes after answering polls. There is an explanation for all of this that can help us better understand election results. For those who are not happy with them, they still won’t, but at least science will help them understand them.
Everyone has their own prejudices about the election results
The prejudices that all people have about election results can be explained charts. It is a series of nodes connected by links called edges that represent relationships between two elements in a set.
In Spain we have a scientific distributor Clara Grimawho, in his books and talks, explains their many uses in our daily lives. And among them is just the explanation of these prejudices.
As a rule, people usually talk about politics with those who have the same ideology. We can see this in everyday life or on social media. For example, in the office, we avoid arguing with a colleague who votes against us. We may not even know what he’s voting for, but we don’t talk to him because we feel like we don’t get along. For this reason, in an office where there will be a representation of the society, with voters on the left and on the right, we will, as a rule, speak with representatives of our ideology. We are the nodes that bring the people we get along with together within a set that represents the entire office.
The same thing happens with social media. For example, in twitter, we tend to follow people who think like us. As the election approaches, everyone starts talking about politics with a vision very similar to ours. Again, we and the people we follow are nodes in a huge set that includes all users of the social network. But we only see what we join. Therefore, we think that there are really more people who think like us.
left voters It was they who were surprised by the results of the elections, because, judging by the knots they were tied to, they thought that there were fewer right-wing voters.
But what about polls?
We are not only surprised by the results of the elections in Spain. They are also attracting attention in other countries such as USA.
You just have to see this Trump win, which has nothing to do with previous polls. It also happens in Spain, but not at such exorbitant levels. What is it about?
This time more than graphics, it could be explained by psychology. A study published in 2022 by scientists from University of California at Berkeley.
This study, through a series pollsanalyzed the tendencies of people to vote for measures against inequality, comparing the results with their previous ideology.
They found that even people who claimed that ideology against social inequalitywhen it came to voting, they were wary of electing politicians who advocated equality measures. This is because, as a rule, people believe that these measures are governed by the principle zero sum. That is, for one person to win, the other must lose. If the most disadvantaged win, the privileged lose.
This study was done in the United States, but it wasn’t focused on something as basic in that country as black rights. He went even further, analyzing his ideals for fighting gender pay gap or need employment of the disabled.
As a rule, people in polls talk about decisions based on their ideology. Or what they consider their ideology. However, when it comes to voting, they may be afraid to decide what they say they stand for.
The impact of social media on election results
After Trump’s victory in the United States, some scholars from University of Rochester analyzed the evolution of candidates on Twitter in the weeks leading up to the election.
So they saw that the faster Trump tweeted, the more his followers grew. This, along with the rejection by Democratic voters Hillary Clintonled to his victory.
In Spain we have politicians who are very popular in social media media such as Isabelle Diaz Ayusowho also swept the election. Everyone in their own way knows how to reach out to the population. Some appeal to racism on the part of the US population, while others to the Spanish tradition of drinking beer in public places. They know how to get there, and this greatly affects the election results.
In the case of Spain, this may also have an impact. zero sum fear. Fear of loss of privilege. This is something that many elected politicians have been able to focus their campaigns on. There are results and science to explain them. Although sometimes we don’t like them.
Source: Hiper Textual
