Near 5 billion peoplelikely more than half of the world’s population will suffer for at least a month from heat wave in 2050. The estimate is the result of joint work Washington Post and CarbonPlan, a non-profit organization that is an expert on climate crisis data. The report emphasizes that while the heat epidemic is a problem for all of humanity, its impact will not be uniform: it will be much more severe for people in poorer countries.
The research team has developed a new projection method that combines different systems and available datasets. One of the key indicators of the analysis is “Globe and Wet Bulb Temperature” (VBGT). This metric combines four variables into one number: temperature, humidity, solar radiation and wind. The scientific community often uses this link to judge when heat is dangerous to human health.
He Washington Post and CarbonPlan used temperature as a reference 32°C RGTto distinguish when the heat is extremely dangerous. This corresponds to a temperature of almost 49 °C if the weather is dry, or almost 33 °C if the environment is very humid. Beyond this threshold, studies explain, thermal stress is dangerous to the body. A short period of outdoor work, even by a healthy person, can make you sick or even die.
At the beginning of the century, about 2 billion people were already exposed to extreme heat. But over time, there will be more people and more days with dangerous temperatures. By 2030, in less than seven years, and this figure will grow to 4 billion peopleaccording to the analysis.
The study was also based on a climate model developed by NASA. “As rising temperatures threaten public health around the world, people need to know when and where a heat wave will occur,” CarbonPlan said in a report on the methodology developed for the forecast.
Extreme heat in the poorest countries
While some parts of the rich countries will also see an increase in heat waves, most of the danger will be in poor countries in hot regions. For example, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
It is estimated that by 2050 Washington DC in the US or Madrid in Spain will experience about 10 and 9 heat waves each year by 2050, respectively. But Pekanbaru in Indonesia will suffer from dangerously high temperatures for almost the entire year: a study has calculated 344 days of extreme heat the highest forecast for any city with a population of more than 500,000 people.
Some cities will face radical growth. Belém, capital of the Brazilian state of Para. suffer the sharpest growth of any major city. By 2050, there will be another six months of extreme heat. compared to 2000: the duration of dangerous temperatures will increase from 50 to more than 200 days. He Washington Post development Search system with which you can access the calculation of other cities.
80% of the population affected by extremely hot days will live in countries whose per capita gross domestic product is estimated to be less than $25,000 by 2030. According to the study, the percentage of the affected population will live in countries with a GDP per capita of $100,000 or more.
Lack of heat protection
A temperature of 32°C may not sound like much, but when it comes to “Global and Wet Bulb Temperatures,” it indicates a heat wave. The elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions may be affected at even weaker levels. But at 32°C VBGTNearly everyone is vulnerable, researchers say.
Many died in this level of heat. He Washington Post Remember that hundreds of people died in 2021 during an unprecedented heat wave in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. In Portland, Oregon’s largest city, WBGT temperatures reached 32°C in just one day. About 115 people also died.
Much of the danger stems from the scarce resources available to the hardest hit populations facing extreme heat. In India, for example, By 2030, 270 million people will experience extreme heat. However, according to the International Energy Agency, in 2018 only 5% of homes in this country had air conditioning.
Outdoor work is more representative of countries most affected by the heat. In India and Pakistan, for example, outdoor workers make up 56% and 47% of the total workforce, according to the International Labor Organization. According to US estimates, this figure is only 10%.
Action Data
CarbonPlan says this study is just an initial contribution to a better understanding of the dangers of climate change to human health. The organization has published its data set to fuel or encourage other research. “The full characterization of these risks remains an active area of work at the interface between climate science and public health,” they add.
The group insists that there are other factors that make the same value of WBGT affect different groups of people differently and should be considered. Access to refrigeration, the ability to change outdoor activities, heart health, age, and even clothing. All of these elements vary by socioeconomic level, CarbonPlan notes.
The organization hopes that this type of data will serve as a basis for authorities to take action. “We need full transparency to ensure accountability … They can affect the lives of millions of people.”
Source: Hiper Textual
