Big: it will be a severe earthquake, for which they are already preparing in Japan

Big. That’s what they call Japan To colossal earthquake it can happen at any time within its boundaries. The exact location and time are unknown, but many experts agree that at some point there was a very strong earthquake measuring above 9will shake Japanese territory.

This topic has been much discussed lately. We try to predict what will happen in 2025. New epidemics? Natural disasters? Will this be the year of the Big One? It’s impossible to know. Why are scientists so sure that this big earthquake will happen in Japan?

Well, the explanation is quite simple. This country is one of the places in the world where the largest number of earthquakes is concentrated. It is estimated that approximately 10% earthquakes occurring on our planet are located in Japan or very close by. The reason, as it could not be otherwise, is hidden under its surface.

What is Big?

In fact, “Big” is a term that did not originate in Japan. For a long time, this was the name given to a possible earthquake that would devastate the northern United States. In particular, the earthquake will occur in San Andreas Faultin California, but the waves would be so powerful that they would spread throughout the northern part of the country.

The strongest earthquake recorded in the area may have been the one that killed 3,000 people in San Francisco. in April 1906. Although at that time the magnitude could not be calculated with the same accuracy as now, it is assumed that it could reach magnitude 7.9.

Since more accurate records existed, several earthquakes occurred that were close in magnitude to this one. This is, for example, what happened in Kern County in 1952, or what happened in Landers in 1992. They had a magnitude 7.5 and 7.3 respectively. However, it is estimated that the magnitude of the Big One could be greater than 8. However, in recent decades there has been talk of another possible Big One, even larger than the one in California, which could be produced in Japan and reach a larger magnitude. than 9. This is talked about as the future. Something that could already happen. But the reality is that Japan already had its own Big One. in 2011when a magnitude 9.1 earthquake and resulting tsunami killed nearly 16,000 people and caused a nuclear disaster in Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant.

Despite this, it is believed that there may be another, even larger one. But why?

Causes of a destructive earthquake

Earthquakes occur when energy stored as a result of objects rubbing or moving against each other is suddenly released. two or more lithospheric plates. These plates, poorly known as tectonic plates, make up the earth’s crust. These are hard rock fragments that move over a more plastic layer known as asthenosphere. They are scattered all over the planet, but the risk of earthquakes is much higher where they are connected together, as if they were the union of pieces of a huge puzzle.

There is a place in Japan known as fire ring where they converge four lithospheric plates. On the other hand, when the edges of the plates slip, cracks appear in the ground, known as failuresin which all these stresses accumulate. The larger the fault, the more likely it is to experience a large earthquake. In Spain, for example, there are many failures, but they are very small. Therefore, although there are areas where earthquakes are common, such as in the southeast of the peninsula, they usually do not reach dangerous magnitudes, much less large ones.

The largest fault in the world is the aforementioned fault in California: the San Andreas Fault. He has Length 1300 km. To give us an idea, the Alhama de Murcia fault, where the 2011 Lorca earthquake occurred, one of the largest in recent Spanish history, has only Length 50 kilometers. It is for this reason that it is expected that a Big One may occur in California. In Japan, for its part, one of the biggest disadvantages is that Nojima, With Length 216 km. It is not as colossal as San Andres, but this is compensated by great seismic activity. Also, just because it isn’t colossal doesn’t mean it isn’t huge.

All this predisposes Japan and California to Big. Unfortunately, earthquakes today are impossible to predict. Therefore, we cannot know when these large earthquakes will occur. We know this is to be expected. Predicting that there will be a major earthquake in Japan in the coming decades is similar to predicting that there will be a day in the coming months when it will rain heavily in A Coruña. The area is predisposed to this. This is why its buildings, as well as its population, are much more prepared than in other parts of the world.