In 2016 Osiris-Rex mission To carefully study Benna Asteroid. He arrived there in 2018, making the first images. They continued to approach their samples from its surface in 2020. Finally, in 2023 they sent them on the way to Earth. But the composition of Benn is not the only thing that bothers scientists today. The study of his career also showed that the time will come when he will have a low, but real probability of impressing our planet. This will happen in 2182 And the probability will be 1 between 2700. 0.04%.
Yes, the probability is low; But, even in this case, the fact that it was not zero forced scientists to think about a plan of action for those who come later. Thus, the team of Korean researchers simulated, which analyzes that it will be consequences The influence of Benn on Earth.
Fortunately, with their With a diameter of 500 metersIt is considered an average asteroid. Chicxulub, The asteroid, which caused the extinction of dinosaurs, had a diameter of at least 10 kilometers. The difference is more than wonderful. Therefore, Benn is not expected that this will cause mass extinction, but this will change life on Earth. Let’s see what simulation.
The consequences of Bennu exposure
In the simulation made in Alef supercomputer of the Center for Physics IBS Climate South KoreaThey proved that the influence of Benn on Earth will start into the atmosphere 400 million tons of dust.
This, of course, makes it difficult to arrive to the surface of the earth Solar radiationField as a result, global land temperature This will decrease by about 4ºCThe field shows that it was noticed with a change in the climate, which perhaps by that time it would be even good news. However, this decrease in solar radiation will also greatly affect Photosynthetic organismsThis field would cause the death of many plants and, as a result, also from herbivores that feed on them. In the case of people, the availability of food will decrease, and Food safetyThe field besides ozone layer, Seriously put the life of all living things. There would be no mass extinction, but there are many health problems.
Modeling shows that plant recovery will be very long; But these algae, also photosynthetic, were restored Pretty fastJust a few months later. In fact, they even grow faster and more than to the influence of Bennu. This is because asteroids very rich in iron, A mineral that is very useful for photosynthetic algae. Therefore, perhaps, people will have to postpone classic agriculture and feed mainly algae.
How disturbing is the risk of influence?
We have already seen that the risk of influence is low, but not impossible. In any case, there is still a lot of time left, and it cannot be excluded that the data on your trajectory has been changed. As a comparative example, the case of an asteroid that has a much higher risk than Benna for influence. In addition, that would be much earlier, in 2032. This 10 times lessTherefore, the consequences will not be so serious; But, in addition, scientists who follow him indicate that the risk of influence can be reduced in the coming years.
Maybe the same thing happens to Benna. In addition, if the methods have already been studied today Asteroids get distractedFor example, tested in the DART mission, they can be even more effective for a century, and even if the risk of influence was high to get distracted so that it never encounters. This is not what should be worried because scientists are getting to work. Right now, people themselves are a much greater risk to Earth than the possible influence of Benn for more than 100 years.
Source: Hiper Textual
