A Borraska Yana Within 10 days, it was rained, and perhaps this did nothing but the beginning. According to current forecasts, we still had two more weeks Intensive precipitationEspecially in the center, the West and the Pyrenees. However, this is not what we can provide. If we saw something with Borrasca Jana, it is that forecasts can even change for one hour for another.
If you are interested in the topic of meteorology, out of curiosity or familiar with the fact that you can look, forecasts can look at forecasts before going to bed, and when you check them this morning, you discovered Some changes. Do not scare, your Internet goes well. You also do not see that they are not to blame and do great work. The fact is that storms are always associated with The situation of instability And this unites all possible factors to make time even more unpredictable.
This means that although forecasts can be made for about 5 or 6 days, it is very difficult to predict what will happen in 24 hours. At the moment, we can practically make sure that the storm of Yana can leave much more waterBut the places where he will do this, the clock and the quantity are not so clear, especially in some areas.
Two very important concepts
Before talking about Borrask, we should have two concepts about the atmosphere: Instability and chaos.
When the air mass passes on a warm surface, its temperature rises, so it rises, leaving a hole in another cold air that takes its place. Then it also heats up and loads, displacing the previous one. If this happens very quickly, we are talking about the situation Atmospheric instability.
Usually measured due to some thermometers located in Helium balloonsIt slowly rises when they are periodic measurements.
As for chaos, it is important to remember that the atmosphere in itself is Chaotic systemThis means that small changes, even at the molecular level, can cause Excellent weather changesThe field is why you cannot make forecasts in more than 10 days. But even these 10 days can be reduced for many reasons.
Why is Yana Borraska so unstable?
In general, storms are associated with instability. Instability increases chaos, so they are more unpredictable than anticyclones, for example. But Borraska Yana is especially unpredictable. This is due to several reasons.
On the one hand, the time of the year. It is known that the atmosphere is more chaotic in Autumn and spring. It is true that we are still in Spain in the winter, but spring is not far off. In fact, earlier in Borrask, Yana was a time that seemed in the spring, both in Spain and in other European countries.
And this is how we are faced with another reason why this storm is so unpredictable. In 2021, a study was published in which it was shown that global warming makes the atmosphere even more chaotic. This means that it is more difficult to do Long -term forecastsThe 2024 field was the warmest year all over the world, as there are notes. 2025 began with a similar trend, in the visible, spring time in the middle of winter. It is clear that we experience those warm, mentioned by the authors of this study. Therefore, Borraska Yana fell into a previously very chaotic atmosphere.
Is it no less difficult to predict Borraska Jan everywhere?
At some points in Spain, the rain is 10 days almost eternal. Forecasts, when it was announced that the rain would not be stop, were simple. Nevertheless, there are points in which, from his weather, it is more complicated than rain, and although a lot of water also falls, the forecasts are more irregular. Besides, Humidity of mountain chains Atmospheric instability can increase when the air layers are faced with them. It also affects the drift taken by Yana Borraka.
As a result, there are points such as South -East Peninsula, Where forecasts are an even greater problem. In any case, we know that Yana has a lot of water to spill. Where and when it does, this is somewhat less specifically. Therefore, you should pay attention to the forecasts of Aemet experts. Not only because they can change forecasts, but also because you can announce a warning in a few time.
Source: Hiper Textual
