FROM Elon Musk introduced Tesla Semi at the end of 2017, a lot of expectations arose around him. At the moment, the electric truck is still months away from reaching customers who are now waiting for its premiere in 2023. The delays have drawn criticism from the world’s leading electric vehicle manufacturer, but the company stands firm, promising to do everything possible. diesel trucks have become obsolete in both performance and economy.
On this last point, some evidence was found showing that only when fuel and energy costs are compared Tesla Semi could be over 83% cheaper than a diesel truck. The data is cruel and, if implemented, it will mean an absolute breakthrough for the transport industry. But is it really so?
Recently a Twitter user named Alex Geyer shared a cost comparison between a conventional diesel truck and a Tesla Semi. To make a 200-mile trip, he calculated, an electric truck would only need a fraction of the budget of its counterpart.
In particular, a vehicle with an internal combustion engine would need about 34 gallons of diesel fuel — almost 127 liters — for a trip. On average, about 5.9 miles (approximately 9.5 km) are consumed per gallon. And given that the price of a gallon of diesel fuel on highways is currently $4.99, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the calculation will result in a cost of $169.76 for fuel for 200 miles..
In analyzing the Tesla Semi case, Guyer took the manufacturer’s claimed consumption of “less than 2 kWh per mile” as a benchmark and rounded it up to 2 full kWh for practical purposes. Thus, covering 200 miles of route would require the use of 400 kWh, which is multiplied by a price of 7 cents per kilowatt hour. they only spent $28 on the road.
By his calculations, the Tesla Semi can cover the trip by spending as little as 16.5% of the money a diesel truck would have to use. Real madness, no doubt. But the comparison would not be entirely realistic, and we will explain why below.
Tesla Semi: pricing and consumption testing
The big question is why the price of 7 cents per kilowatt-hour was taken as a benchmark. And the answer is simple: because it was Elon Musk who mentioned it during the Tesla Semi presentation, comparing it with the consumption of an ordinary truck. The problem is that the event in question happened in November 2017.; that is almost five years ago.
So Guyer compares diesel truck consumption at per-gallon prices in August 2022 to electric truck consumption based on a promised price per kilowatt-hour nearly five years ago. The author of the analysis even mentions that Tesla “CAN set the cost of energy at 7 cents per kWh” with the deployment of new mega-chargers for the Tesla Semi, as well as megapacks and solar generation in place.
But after spending so much time since this price was made public, can it be considered a benchmark? Let’s not forget that the United States has a high rate of inflation, which has recently been between 8.5 and 9.1% on an annualized basis. So it goes without saying that the target of 7 cents per kilowatt-hour may already be history. Moreover, when Elon Musk introduced the Tesla Semi and compared its cost per mile to an internal combustion engine truck, the reference price for a gallon of diesel fuel was $2.50.; that is, half of what it is worth today.
Perhaps the comparison will be fairer if we take the price per kilowatt-hour, which supercharger Tesla in the USA. It is worth noting that today this figure varies depending on the location of the chargers. Some even bill not by kWh, but by minutes of charging. However, the average is estimated at about 25 cents per kilowatt hour.
More realistic scenario?
Of course, this is a very strong jump compared to the $0.07 originally announced by Elon Musk. But let’s not forget that the idea of the Tesla Semi Megacharger was to offer fast charging points that could be used during rest stops. Therefore, aside from costs, the closest thing currently available to Tesla’s fast recharging is Supercharger. Later, when specific electric truck chargers come into service, there may be subsidies or special tariffs that make recharging cheaper, but there is no more information about this yet.
Given the new price of $0.25 per kWh, 400 kWh is needed to cover 200 miles in a Tesla Semi. will cost $100. That’s a little more than $28 for the original example, but still significantly less than $169.76 for a diesel truck.
Following this line, Tesla’s electric truck could be 41% cheaper than its diesel counterpart. This is not a brutal percentage like the one in the original example (83%). but it could be a little more realistic. Yet there are nuances. Freight transport costs and consumption can vary depending on what is being transported, its weight, track conditions and weather. So until the Tesla Semi hits the roads in the US and other countries, we won’t have really accurate data on this. And for this we have to wait a long time …
Source: Hiper Textual
