Here’s How Weather Forecasts Work and Why They’re Sometimes Wrong

The weather is one of the biggest concerns of our daily life. If it’s sunny, then no problem. But as soon as it rains, snows or fog; problems come too. So it’s important to look at today’s weather or the weather for the weekend when we have outdoor plans. And this is not counting people who, by the nature of their work, for example, fishermen or farmers, need to know what the weather will be like every day. But, How are weather forecasts made? And why do predictions sometimes fail to come true?

You don’t have to go far to see the challenges of weather forecasting. Same Holy Week in many parts of Spain the rain came almost without warning. And, unfortunately, the weather this weekend promises rain and storms in part of the Iberian Peninsula. Many people will wish the predictions were wrong, but that remains to be seen.

In addition, Madrid experienced a historic snowfall last January; Despite warnings, neither the community nor the city council were prepared for what was to come. It wasn’t a prediction error it was a human errorA: A lot of people thought it wouldn’t be such a big deal. Among the townspeople, it is customary not to attach such importance to the weather, because they are not used to snow in the city limits of the capital. However, experts warned. They gave a signal to political leaders as well as citizens. Despite everything, the snow caught a lot of people with their asses up.

This is how the weather works

But we have not come to talk about Madrid or human failures. Let’s talk about the science behind predictions: meteorology.

weather forecast based first on observation. That is, in order to know what the weather will be, all the variables known to us that lead to one time or another are controlled. For this we have weather stationssatellites and other technologies that allow us to measure humidity, wind, temperature, pressure, precipitation and other variables.

Then we need mathematical models and computers to analyze them. FROM surveillance data, we can predict what the weather will be like in the next few days. “Weather forecasts are getting better and better: today a five-day weather forecast is as reliable as a two-day forecast was twenty years ago,” the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) explains on its website.

Weather and climate forecasting “provides much more than just weather forecasting,” says the WMO. Supercomputers “use mathematical models (numerical weather forecast models) based on the laws of physics produce graphics, digital products, weather and air quality forecasts, climate forecasts; risk assessment and early warning. Weather satellites broadcast this weather information in real time several times a day.”

Failures in forecasts

“Weather forecasts are getting better and better: today a five-day forecast is as reliable as a two-day forecast twenty years ago”

World Meteorological Organization

But is the weather failing? Sometimes yes. In fact, when the weather forecast is consulted, it is usually accompanied by a percentage. This percentage tells us how confident the experts are about the correctness of the forecast given the data they are working with. Ultimately, this shows the probability that a weather event will occur. If the percentage is large, such as a rain forecast of 70% or 80%, this indicates that rain is more likely. But there is always a chance that water will not fall from the sky. However, if there is more than a 50% chance of rain, it is always better to leave the house with an umbrella.

In fact, airplanes are also an important part of the study of time. we have already spoken in hypertext of them during lockdown. And that’s what airplanes help make more accurate weather forecastsespecially when it comes to winds.

Also, sometimes forecasts can be wrong, especially if they are longer than five days; these usually pretty accurate. Meteorology isn’t an exact science, but it doesn’t make mistakes either. forever and ever. Only you have to consider the odds rain, wind or any other factor that can spoil the weather at a weekend picnic.