Covid-19 expected to infect 800 million people in China in winter

The sharp increase in Covid-19 cases, the relaxation of so-called “covid-zero” controls and a harsh winter mean that China is currently facing a situation that can be classified as: The world’s largest disease outbreak in the pandemic since its onset🇧🇷 At least 800 million people could become infected in the coming months, according to the country’s public health officials.

The prediction made in a press release by Xiaofeng Liang, deputy director of the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, is that the first wave of covid-19 may actually infect about 60% of the country’s population. This means 10% of the world’s population could become infected in the next 90 days.

in an interview with NPR, epidemiologist Ben Cowling points out that this is the faster spread of covid-19 during the pandemic than at any other time. Scientists from China’s National Health Commission, using the disease’s so-called R (reproductive) number estimate the number of new people a patient infects at 16🇧🇷

Covid-zero policy in China

In addition to the very high R count, doubling the number of cases per hour, the population currently has little immunity to the coronavirus because the vast majority have never been infected. China has prevented a large part of the population from being infected by imposing mass quarantines, testing and travel restrictions, but there are currently 1.4 billion people susceptible to the infection.

Today, several highly contagious omicron variants are circulating in all regions in China. BF.7 call included which has been in circulation in Europe and the USA since last August.

Worryingly, although about 90% of the population over 18 years of age have been vaccinated, only 50% of the elderly have received the third dose, putting about 11 million people at risk of being hospitalized. Deaths that can reach 500 thousand people🇧🇷