Saturday, may 13final of the festival Eurovision 2023. Like every year, there are favorites based on bookmaker scores and Spotify streams. On both scales, the winner will be the Swedish Laurynwith your theme Tattoo. But what does science say about this? Is it possible to make predictions taking into account the winning topics in other publications?
The truth is that some things can be done, although logically they are not infallible calculations. Some statesmen and music experts they have already done their calculations and established what makes Eurovision songs attractive to the public.
Here are a few examples, but given that these calculations are based only on music and lyrics. It is indisputable that geopolitics He has a very important role in the Eurovision results, but we will not take him into account in this article.
Better alone than accompanied
Doctor Liam BrierleyProfessor at the University of Liverpool and Ambassador Royal Statistical Society from the United Kingdom has done some calculations based on Eurovision results since it started in 1956. He found several factors that can increase the likelihood of winning, but above all, there are two that seem to influence the most.
On the one hand, the musical style. According to the mathematician, the songs that get the most wins are usually pop, ballads or dance musicalthough it usually works well too folklore the country in question.
On the other side, soloists 15% more likely win than duets and groups. These are all trends; but, logically, they are not always fulfilled. A good example of this are Lordi and Maneskin. The first victory was given by Finland in 2006 with the theme Hard Rock Hallelujah; which, as the title suggests, is a hard rock song. As for the Italians Måneskin, they became the winners of Eurovision 2021, and the rocker Zitti e buoni. Both groups have styles that fall outside of the average, but they have risen to the top of the classification.
Perfect Eurovision Song
In fact, there is no perfect song. If they were, all countries would wear it. However, beyond the style and number of performers, the Associate Dean of the Humanities and Social Sciences at the University of Winchester Glenn Fosbray, also made their own calculations. In an article for Talkanalyzed the last 20 Eurovision winning songs and came to several conclusions.
Of those 20 songs, 17 were in English17 spokes about relationships13 used the word “love”18 had at least one direct hint first person to secondand they all used repetitive choruses. In addition, most of the employed cliches and rhymes. The author himself admits that clichés may differ for different eras and cultures, but this can be said at a general level.
Now, again, it refers to trends. There is more to see, again, the problems mentioned above. Lordi members sang in English, but ode to rockin which heaven and hell come together to turn their music into something heavenly. There was no relationship, no love. A little rhyme, but very little cliché.
As for Måneskin, they sang in Italian. your song defended various. Those people who somehow had to make an effort to adapt. There is no relationship, no love, but just a slight conversion from the first to the second person. Moreover, it can be accurately considered as cliché criticism
Can Blanca Paloma win?
White dovewith his uhEurovision is a risky but interesting bet that also ranks fifth in bookmakers.
But taking into account statistics scientists, are there any opportunities?
It all depends on the calculations on which we rely. Brierley’s predictions would have been very favorable to the Spanish interpreter. This soloistwho also chose as a musical style folklore of their country.
On the other hand, the theme of the song doesn’t really match the Eurovision trends set by Fosbraey. To start a song not in Englishbut in spanish. Doesn’t talk about relationshipsNo. At least not a love relationship, but a mother-child relationship, because she is still a nanny. Yes, I have me links to youas a woman sings to a child. But, although this is a clear gesture of the purest love, he does not use this word as it is. Yes it says “a little of my love‘, so here we could cover the term.
As for rhymes and clichés, he uses a consonant rhyme that is not very marked, but adds a lot of rhythm to the song. Eat cliche? It depends on what we mean by cliche. The mother’s love for the child is visible as such, but she does not use very hackneyed phrases and expressions on this occasion. What it has, like the Lordi and Måneskin themes, is a repetitive chorus. Actually, in this case it is very repetitive: just two letters that become a ritual that we can hardly get out of our heads. Will this proposal convince the jury and Eurofans? We’ll find out soon. At least you have some of the necessary ingredients to win. With statistics on hand, of course.
Source: Hiper Textual