Freedom Finance Global analyst predicted the ruble exchange rate for the fall

The first of these will be the tightening of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The expert has no doubt that the regulator will raise the key refinancing rate, since for them the fight against inflation and high inflationary expectations is a priority.

After all, the growth of the dollar above 100 rubles greatly increases inflationary expectations and accelerates the growth rate of inflation, since all imported goods and services automatically become more expensive in ruble terms, and goods and Similar Russian services are gradually rising in price behind them, explains Vladimir Chernov.

The strengthening of the ruble will also be affected by an increase in export earnings of Russian companies against the background of rising world energy prices and a decrease in the discount of Russian export oil Urals to the benchmark Brent grade to the 14% (at the beginning of last week, the discount was 17.5%, and at the beginning of the year it reached 30%).

The growth of export earnings, according to the analyst, will increase the flow of foreign exchange for conversion into rubles during the tax period, which will change the balance of supply and demand and, as a result, the value of the currency. .

In this context, the Russian ruble may start to strengthen at the end of next week, since the peak of tax payments in August will fall on Monday the 28th, which means that exporters will start converting the currency from the second. half of next week.

According to Vladimir Chernov, the recovery of the value of the ruble can be called trade in the region of 90-95 rubles to the dollar, and we will call the strengthening of the Russian ruble a scenario with a return of its value below 90 rubles, at least in the region of 83-87.

He suggested that a more likely scenario next autumn would be a recovery in the value of the ruble to 90–95 to the dollar, and by the end of the year a strengthening to 85 rubles to the dollar could not be ruled out.

• On August 15, the Bank of Russia will raise the key rate at an extraordinary meeting of the Board of Directors, without waiting for the meeting scheduled for September. From the materials of the Bank of Russia it follows that, in their opinion, the observed increase in inflation is almost in its pure form a consequence of the increase in the cost of imports, which the population of the Russian Federation is not going to reject. absolutely.