A small concession to exporters regarding the rules for the delivery of foreign exchange earnings, provided by the government, led to a weakening of the ruble. But the possibility of a new war of consolidation and volatility in the near future cannot be ruled out. Prime writes about this citing the words of a professor at the Department of Finance for Sustainable Development at the Russian Economic University. GV Plekhanov Mikhail Gordienko.
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On June 21, in Russia, taking into account the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate and the achievement of the required level of foreign currency liquidity, the requirement for the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters was relaxed and fixed the threshold for their repatriation. reduced from 80% to 60%.
As Gordienko says, the dynamics of the exchange rate of the national currency due to the relaxation of exporters’ obligations depends on supply and demand in the domestic market. When they are forced to sell less currency, the supply of dollars and euros in the domestic market falls.
“The weakening of exporters’ obligations can cause, and already causes, an increase in demand for foreign currency from other market participants, which also contributes to the weakening of the ruble,” says the expert.
What is happening now is adjusting the ruble exchange rate towards previously planned values. It should be noted that, relative to the dollar, this will be 90.1 rubles in 2024 and one more ruble at the beginning of 2025. This is important not only for the predictability of export and import operations, but also for macroeconomic stability. of the country as a whole.
Gordienko says the cancellation of foreign exchange trading will complicate forecasts and make them less transparent.
“However, we see that the ruble has already begun to weaken; After the measures taken, prices rose to 90 per dollar,” the specialist emphasizes.
He is confident that a significant weakening of the ruble will not occur in the near future. The fact is that the Russian government is implementing measures to stabilize the exchange rate.
We previously wrote that the national clearing center will convert the client’s currency into rubles until June 28. The conversion will be carried out at the rate established on June 13.
Author:
Nikolai Tikhonov
Source: RB
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