On the eve of the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund, the organization called on countries to put their financial affairs in order and, in particular, to analyze their debts. The entire first chapter of the IMF report, which will be published in full on October 23, is dedicated to this.
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Based on the progress, as Bloomberg writes, it can be judged that the global debt burden is reaching critical levels. This year, total debt will be $100 trillion, largely due to what the fund’s director, Kristalina Georgieva, called a “mountain of loans” from China and the United States.
“Our forecasts point to a disappointing combination of low growth and high debt levels, which promises a difficult future,” he warned. “Governments must work to reduce debt and create reserves for the next shock, which will surely come and perhaps sooner than we expect.”
According to the agency, by the end of 2024 the level of global debt burden could reach 94.8%. And if we talk about the distribution by country, in some European countries the situation is much worse than in the aforementioned USA (97.4%) and China (62.1%). In Japan, 254%, in France, 111.3%, in the United Kingdom, 103.2%.
According to the fund, debts will grow in the medium term. Analysts estimate that, in the worst case, global debt in three years will be almost 20 percentage points of GDP above the reference forecast, reaching 115%. And directly in the G7 countries by 2050 it could grow to 188% compared to the current 125.9%.
“High debt levels and uncertainty about fiscal policy in systemically important countries such as China and the United States could have important negative consequences in the form of higher borrowing costs and debt risks in other countries,” they emphasized in the fund.
Author:
Ekaterina Alipova
Source: RB
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