Russians’ inflation expectations have reached a new high for 2024

The inflation rate observed by Russians in December also increased to 15.9% from 15.3% in November. The inflation estimate observed among those who do not have cash savings this month was 16.9% (16.3% in November), and among those who do, 14.4% (13.9% last month).

In November, for the first time since the introduction of tough anti-Russian sanctions, neither inflation expectations nor the observed inflation rate changed, Interfax reported. In October, inflation expectations rose to 13.4% from 12.5% ​​in September, showing the highest increase since December 2023, the agency noted.

On the topic: What is a key rate?

Inflation determines the Central Bank’s decisions on the key interest rate. In mid-November, the head of the regulator, Elvira Nabiullina, said that a reduction in the key rate could begin in 2025: “We believe that our policy will reduce inflation to 4-4.5% next year and then stabilize it at around of 4%. % and as it slows, we will consider a gradual reduction of the key rate.”

In early December, the deputy chairman of the State Duma Economic Policy Committee, Nikolai Arefiev (Communist Party of the Russian Federation), said that the financial authorities are “hiding real inflation” in order not to increase pensions and salaries of workers. public sector employees. In fact, according to the deputy, real inflation is currently between 17% and 18%.

At the last meeting on October 25, the Bank of Russia increased the key interest rate by 200 basis points. – up to 21% annually, which marked the third consecutive increase in the key rate in 2024 and its highest value in history. The next meeting of the regulator’s board of directors will take place on December 20. Analysts and experts surveyed by RB.RU agree that the Central Bank will increase the rate to 23% annually.