Staff shortages, tax increases and profit cuts: what Russian companies expect from 2025

Polina Gusyatnikova,
Senior Managing Partner at PG Partners

Most likely, in 2025 we will observe reduction of small and medium enterprises and a narrowing of the market, because with such prices only the big players can survive. In my opinion, this is critical for Russia, as our SME segment has always been at low levels compared to many countries. In 2023, the participation of SMEs in the economy was just over 20%.

In his speech before the Federal Assembly, the president indicated that until 2025 the proportion of small businesses should grow to 40%, since it is one of the engines of economic development. However, with such key rate values, such plans are not destined to come true.

Oksana Selendeeva,
Coddy online school founder

2025 is likely to be a challenging year for businesses due to… an increase in the tax burden, a decrease in people’s purchasing power and a slowdown in the economy. These factors force us to reconsider our approaches and adapt to new conditions.

In such a situation, it is important to offer services that create tangible value for each customer. We plan to introduce even more personalization into educational programs so that students feel that their needs are taken into account and their investment in training yields maximum results.

By paying special attention to the automation and optimization of internal processes, we will be able to minimize costs and increase operational efficiency. We also aim to strengthen employee support so that everyone shares common goals and understands their importance.

Alexey Zakharov,
President of Super Job

Nobody knows how the labor market will change in the future. In the last 25 years, not a single forecast about the labor market, the dollar exchange rate or oil prices for the next five years has come true.

In the next two years, if government regulation does not change, we will continue to talk about staff shortage. This is good news for all workers: it will be easier and faster to find and change jobs, wages will increase and you will be able to work less. And it’s bad for all employers: finding and retaining people will become increasingly expensive. You will have to pay more for less productivity.

Employers must finally accept the fact that cheap labor is no longer available, work hard to retain staff, as well as attract young and older candidates, and move to continuous recruitment. SuperJob’s plan for 2025 is to launch even more products to help employers and job seekers find each other.

Dmitri Litvinov,
Vice President of the Board of Directors of the “Blank” Business Bank

We expect, first of all, a reduction in interest rate growth and more Transparent international payment mechanisms. for business. Now, to transfer money abroad, businessmen look for legal loopholes and sometimes come across unscrupulous intermediaries. In 2024, there were active discussions about creating a reliable channel. [проведения платежей] within the BRICS. We hope that next year there will be details on this topic for both banks and companies.

Vera Modenova,
Director of Operations at Flowwow

We expect its adoption in 2025. platform economy bill. The new rules regulate the relationship between buyers, sellers, collection points and markets. There will be rules for the issuance of product cards and a procedure for pre-trial appeal of market actions.

Although the new rules will limit the freedom in our actions, I consider them very useful, because above all they protect our partners and customers. If the market were guided by the principles of honesty and openness towards buyers and sellers, then innovations will have little impact on it. Therefore, Flowwow sellers already have the opportunity to challenge our actions if, in their opinion, liability measures were introduced in error.

In addition, there is an initiative on the market to create “Russian Shelf” collections in the markets. We have a very positive attitude towards the proposal, because it will help popularize the activities of local producers. We will be happy to create such a section in Flowwow.

Maxim Popov,
market expert, co-founder
Paragraph Collection brand and OneScreen analysis service

We expect more from 2025 increased burden on sellers in markets of the markets themselves.

We also expect serious controls from the State. In the current situation, this is even more of a small advantage, since there is a possibility that because of this many will leave the market and there will be less competition.

Entrepreneurs will always adapt and find a solution, but I would really like to be able to provide more value and a good product to customers without falling into the constant need to raise prices due to additional costs.

Sergei Timokhin,
General Director of Retail Rocket Group CIS

Adoption of the law on online advertising collectionwhich will come into effect on April 1, 2025, will have a significant impact on the entire advertising ecosystem. On the one hand, this introduces a new charge of 3% of quarterly income. On the other hand, such changes can become an incentive to seek more effective monetization strategies.

For Retail Rocket Group, the key direction will be the development of products based on neural networks. We combine tools into a single ecosystem to make the user journey easier and more convenient. In particular, we will attach great importance to the development of intelligent search: this is an area where our technologies have great potential.

Kirill Kotov,
technical director of the IT company “CodeTech”

• We hope the trend develops artificial intelligence, recommendation systems and digitalization. The public sector is increasingly entering this area: we see success stories in the fields of health, finance and information and communication technologies. We can predict further spread in other industries and in many regions of Russia.

  At the same time, we are awaiting regulatory decisions. With the spread of AI, it has come to be understood that it is necessary to actively work on issues of safety, ethics, compliance with the legislation of machine reactions and common sense. Therefore, the challenge for the coming years is not only to implement AI models, but also to develop principles for the safe and ethical use of the technology.

• In 2025, amendments that tighten responsibility of personal data operators due to leaks of personal information. We expect further tightening of regulation in the area of ​​information security, because the development of AI, biometrics and recommendation systems are inextricably linked to security issues.

• Willpower less benefits. The year 2025 will begin with the abolition of the zero rate of income tax for IT companies. I think a lot of attention will be paid to the “IT subsidiaries” of large companies, which at one time massively transferred employees to separate legal entities.

• WITH tightening immigration laws It will not be possible to solve the problem of staff shortage by attracting foreign developers from neighboring countries or from India. Therefore, we definitely expect even more requests for external staffing and outsourcing.

Maxim Petrenchuk,
co-founder of the communication agency Social Stars

Increase taxes for working with bloggers and influencers: the most anticipated innovation of 2025. As well as additional regulation of bloggers in general. Therefore, next year, part of our plans is related to the construction of a dialogue between bloggers and the State within the framework of a public association that will structurally be able to transmit the positions of the influencers to the regulator.

Kirill Kuznetsov,
co-founder of the IT company “Peregod”

In 2025, we hope to see an improved legal environment that allows private organizations to more actively participate in programs like the Pushkin Card. We expect legislative initiatives aimed at simplify access to government subsidies and support tools for companies in the field of culture.

In turn, we plan to expand our presence on the map of Russia: in 2025 we will have large-scale work on digitizing historical heritage, including the creation of virtual reality tours of historical sites in Tatarstan and Russia.

Virtual reality makes it possible to immortalize the most important monuments and make them accessible to a wide audience, including the younger generation, accustomed to digital formats. I would like the State to pay attention to the importance of the digitization of heritage and support this type of projects.