Analysts from the Expert RA rating agency estimated the volume of potentially problematic loans in Russia at around 700 billion rubles. This is 6% of the capital of the entire domestic banking sector at the beginning of 2023. The reason for this growth may be the difference between the reserves created under IFRS and RAS.
The economic shocks in the first half of last year forced some companies to restructure part of their debt. However, compared to the 2020 pandemic, it was large companies that actively used the possibility of changing the initial terms of loan agreements, writes RBC.
According to the agency’s forecast, in 2023 the insolvency situation in the banking sector will worsen slightly. As part of the main forecast, analysts have assumed an increase in the share of overdue debts of large companies to 6.5%, in the SME segment the figure may be lower – 6%.
This will happen as they become aware of the problems of large institutions that have a high proportion of loan agreements already restructured and continue to be under pressure from sanctions.
In 2022, the volume of overdue consumer loans in the Russian Federation increased by 0.3% from September to October and amounted to a record 631.1 billion rubles.
Author:
karina pardaeva
Source: RB
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