Freedom Finance Global analyst did not rule out an exchange rate of 83 rubles to the dollar in May

In January, according to the Central Bank, the trade balance surplus decreased by 52%, in January-February it decreased even more, 2.8 times, to 15.3 billion rubles, in March it fell another 3 times, to $ 5 billion.

In 2022, the surplus increased due to the growth of export earnings and the fall in imports, which ensured the strengthening of the ruble, in some months the profit on the account reached $30 billion, says the financier.

This year, the situation is reversed, so the ruble has gone from strengthening to weakening, and the current trend is likely to continue, Chernov predicts.

In the past week, the weakening of the ruble, according to him, could have been accelerated by an increase in the demand for foreign currency among companies, since purchases of shares of foreign companies in Russia are carried out for foreign currency, hence the demand for the same in the stock market is growing.

However, such a sharp increase is more of a speculative nature, and after the hype subsides, the exchange rate returns to its previous values, so in April the analyst expects the dollar to return to 80 rubles.

In the long term, the Russian Federation’s trade surplus this year, according to their forecasts, will continue to decline, which means that the downward trend will continue. Chernov did not rule out that in May the exchange rate will be 83 rubles to the dollar.