Astronomers map the path of asteroids over the next 1,000 years

Over millions of years, our planet has witnessed numerous collisions with large rocks from outer space, a phenomenon that will last for billions of years. But for at least 1,000 years, we don’t need to worry too much about these events taking place on Earth.

This is because a team of astronomers led by Oscar Fuentes-Muñoz of the University of Colorado Boulder has succeeded in predicting the orbits of large asteroids over the next millennium.

NASA and other organizations around the world are already monitoring the skies, tracking and cataloging potentially dangerous near-Earth objects known as NEOs. While our inventory of hazardous NEO is still lacking, Reliable maps covering almost all potentially dangerous asteroids more than a kilometer (0.6 mi) in diameter.

“As orbital uncertainties increase, it is difficult to assess impact risk on longer timescales. To overcome this limitation, we analyzed the evolution of the Minimum Orbital Interception Distance (MOID), which limits the closest possible encounters between the asteroid and Earth,” explains the study. Published on the Cornell University server.

“MOID evolution highlights NEOs closer to Earth longer, and we’re a A method of estimating the probability of a deep encounter with Earth in these times.”

Among the dangerous NEOs that have been detected, one particularly stands out: the asteroid 7482. This celestial body is expected to remain in close proximity to Earth for a significant period of time over the next thousand years. While that doesn’t guarantee a collision with our planet, it does offer the highest probability of impact in the next thousand years.

Collectively, astronomers have identified 28 candidates with a non-negligible probability of “deep encounter”, meaning their closer transit from the Moon. While none of these objects are expected to collide with Earth for hundreds or thousands of years, it is very important that we remain vigilant.