This week the United Nations released shocking information: there is only a 14% chance that we will be able to limit global warming to below 1.5°C.. This is perhaps the most compelling evidence yet that shows the partial failure of the Paris Agreement, the commitment that almost every country on the planet made in 2015 to stop climate change. But things could be worse. For this reason, governments around the world will meet next week to discuss corrective actions in KS28.
UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) will be held in Dubai from November 30 to December 12. The main goal of the meeting is to once again create conditions to reduce emissions of polluting gases – the main factors of current warming. And things are going very badly for us in this sense.
For example, about 36.8 billion tons of polluting gases were emitted in 2022, the highest level to date. The UN warns that none of the G20 countries (among the worst polluters) are cutting emissions at a sustained pace. Far from falling, emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases are expected to increase by at least 1.2% between now and 2030.
“This is a lack of leadership, a betrayal of vulnerable people and a huge missed opportunity,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said Monday. “Current trends are leading our planet to a dead end.” It was Guterres who said last August that the era of global warming was over: “Now is the time for the era of global boiling.”
COP28 and the goals of the Paris Agreement on global warming
This is not just another summit. First of all, because global warming has never been more obvious. The scientific community predicts that governments will meet at COP28, which will be the hottest year on record. Never before have we been so close to what Guterres himself called the “point of no return”: the famous 1.5°C warming.
This indicator shows how much global temperatures have increased since industrial activity began. In this sense, the Paris Agreement set a two-tiered goal: to do everything possible to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C and keep it “well below” 2.0°C.
Between November 2022 and October 2023, the planet experienced an average global temperature of 1.3°C above pre-industrial temperatures. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, last Friday was the first time the temperature on Earth temporarily exceeded 2°C in one day. It’s not as serious because it’s not a sustainable trend – like the 1.3°C rise in temperature over the last 12 months – but it’s a new warning about where we’re going.
Various forecasts suggest that temperatures of 1.5°C will soon be exceeded, corresponding to only a 14% chance of success predicted by the UN. A new study published at the end of October estimates that this will happen in 2029. Thus, the new plans already indicate how to avoid exceeding the second target: warming by 2°C.
Countries and divisions at COP28
The 2023 emissions gap report, released Monday by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), leaves little room for doubt. If things continue as they are, the world is heading towards an increase In the same century, temperatures are 2.5°C and 2.9°C above pre-industrial levels.
The world needs to cut emissions by 28% by 2030 to get on track to meet the Paris Agreement’s 2°C temperature reduction target. The UNEP report insists on the decisive role of large economies. It is therefore fitting (or ironic) that COP28 is taking place in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates.
The United Arab Emirates is one of the ten largest oil-producing countries. Oil, like gas and coal, is a fossil fuel. And fossil fuels are a major cause of climate change because when they are burned for energy, they release greenhouse gases that warm the planet.
The host country named COP28 President speaks with State Oil Company CEO Sultan Al Jaber. “This is the equivalent of putting the CEO of a tobacco company in charge of a cancer treatment conference,” Zeina Khalil Haj, global campaign manager for 350.org, which fights to end the fuel, said in January. fossils.
About the industry lobby
Al Jaberah, an Abu Dhabi oil company, plans to expand its production capacity in the coming years. So, the industry as a whole. The strategies of the 20 largest oil and gas companies in the world, according to estimates in early 2023, will lead to polluting emissions will exceed the levels proposed in the Paris Agreement by 173% by 2040. By 2022, they have already exceeded them by 112%.
And governments are not far behind. According to the latest report Lancet countdown78% of countries assessed, including the most polluting ones, still contribute to fossil fuel production through net direct subsidies. In 2020, support totaled $305 billion.
In addition to nearly 200 governments, More than 600 fossil fuel industry representatives attended last year’s COP27. The number of participants increased by 25% compared to the previous summit, according to BBC. This year, the UN ruled that representatives of oil, gas and coal companies must disclose their ties to the industry if they want to participate in negotiations. A way to expose the lobby and limit its influence.
In any case, the big debate at COP28 is expected to revolve around the future of fossil fuels. The industry will propose a “phase out” and some governments, such as the European Union, will talk about a “phase out”. Meanwhile, UN agencies and activists will continue to push for decisive and radical action to achieve the goals.
Help poor countries need
The second big debate at COP28: money. The creation of a “loss and damage” fund was approved at last year’s summit. This is an initiative to get the richest countries to provide financial support to the poorest countries to help them cope with the effects of climate change. And also to accompany them during the transition to pure energies.
This doesn’t seem far-fetched, given that rich countries pollute the most. But countries such as the United States have already ruled out paying such climate reparations. The initiative is also trying to salvage the failure of another similar project.
Rich countries They pledged to mobilize $100 billion a year by 2020. with the goal of helping those with fewer resources. They failed. An estimate from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, which has not been confirmed, is expected to be reached in 2022. But there is another problem: part of the money they invested went into strange enterprises. For example: a coal plant, a hotel and even a chain of chocolate stores.
The system is designed for fraud. This pledge was made without official guidance on what activities count as “climate finance.” It also does not require governments to provide details. The UN Climate Change Secretariat explained that countries must decide for themselves whether to introduce common standards. Rich countries, of course, refused.
Goal alone is not enough. An analysis of the financial needs of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change found that developing countries require assistance of at least $6 trillion to adapt to the goals of the Paris Agreement. In any case, COP28 is expected to dictate clear rules regarding the size of the “loss and damage” fund approved last year.
The emergency has already begun
This year, 7.3 billion people experienced at least 10 days of high temperatures, which was at least three times more likely due to climate change, according to Climate Central. The consequences of the climate crisis are already being felt by 90% of the world’s inhabitants.
Heat is already a huge problem, but it’s not the only one. The same can be said about storms and hurricanes, which are now twice as likely to become catastrophic. It’s Antarctica and glaciers across much of the world melting at record levels, affecting ecosystems and key sources of water for people. Losses caused by climate change amount to at least $140 billion a year. This is an increased risk of infectious diseases.
This is urgent. According to the UN, environmental factors Every year they claim the lives of about 13 million people. Its secretary, António Guterres, this Wednesday asked the leaders of the world’s major economies to achieve “ambitious, credible and fair” results at the next COP28. It’s late tomorrow.
Source: Hiper Textual
