The North Pole could lose ice in just three years, according to a new study.

We’re lucky that Santa’s sleigh is flying, because if he only depended on snow to get around, North Pole You may need to consider an alternative form of transport. New research published in Natural communications An international team of scientists doesn’t mention Santa Claus but is alarmed about what could soon happen to the North Pole due to climate change. If nothing is done to correct the situation, first ice-free summer in the Arctic This can happen in just 3 years.

Arctic melting is something that has been studied a lot in recent years as it is an excellent indicator global warming progress. It’s happening faster and faster increase your speed by 12% for each past decade. The Arctic will be considered ice-free when its coverage area falls below million square kilometers. We are still above it, but if things continue at the usual pace, that day will come too soon.

The authors of the study came to this conclusion as a result of a series of computer models developed based on historical data. They follow a set rhythm, but this does not mean that it cannot be changed. If action is taken to mitigate climate change, perhaps the first ice-free day in the Arctic can be delayed a little longer. If we’re not doing it for the planet, let’s do it so that the children of the future don’t have a distorted view of Santa’s house.

Dangerously accelerating Arctic ice melt

At the moment, the minimum ice area in the Arctic was recorded in September 2012. 3.4 million square kilometers. Then it was associated with the La Niña phenomenon as something specific.

However, the evolution over the years has not been much better. This September, the ice surface in the Arctic 4.28 million square kilometers. Between 1978 and 1992 the average was 6.35 million square kilometers, so the area covered by ice has decreased significantly.

The reason is clear: anthropogenic climate change caused by excessive emissions greenhouse gasesespecially carbon dioxide. It is clear that we must look for ways to reduce emissions in the future. Also from capture carbon dioxide present in the atmosphere. Only in this way will we be able to reduce the appalling progress that this study shows.

North Pole without snow for Santa Claus

Previous studies have given a very wide range of dates for the possible first ice-free day in the Arctic. This could be anything from one ice-free day in 2027 to no ice-free days in 2100. Everything depended on the model used.

Taking into account monthly averages for September, it was estimated that the first ice-free conditions may occur. between 2020-2030 along all emission trajectories and is likely to occur by 2050. However, daily ice-free conditions in September are expected to be about 4 years early on average, with the potential to be up to 10 years ahead of the monthly total. In any case, this refers to a day without ice. The most dramatic situation can arise when this extends over time and this is also calculated in the study. In particular, he points out Probability of no ice in May-January and August-October by 2100 according to the high and low emissions scenarios, respectively.

However, the latest study is much more specific, taking into account conditions and historical data. To give more specific dates, the models used in this latest study are based on historical data and the current progress of melting in the Arctic, concluding that. most likely everything will happen until 2030.

It is possible that in 2027 we will already have a summer with several days without ice, and in 2100 there will be several months during which North Pole Stop being a snowy landscape on Christmas cards. It may seem far away, but it is very close. It’s just one or two generations. Is this the world we want to leave them? As always, it’s worth thinking about.