A new survey released by the Week this Friday by the National Counseling Center revealed that: Gustavo Petro, the presidential candidate of the Historical Pact, continues to lead without any difficulty as to what has to do with voting intentions.

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According to the results of the survey, the former mayor of Bogota is leading in the first and second rounds.

When asked if there are presidential elections this Sunday, which candidate would you vote for? 38 percent of respondents said they would vote for Petro.

This rate was 36.5 in the measurement known on March 31, and 32.1 percent in the measurement published on March 18. In other words, a trend is clearly visible in the Petro example.

Fico Gutierrez is in second place with 23.8 percent. This rate was 24.5 percent in the March 31 measurement, and 23.2 in the first measurement.

According to the results of the CNC survey, Rodolfo Hernández is in third place with 9.6, followed by Sergio Fajardo with 7.2.

Ingrid Betancourt, John Milton Rodríguez, Luis Pérez, Enrique Gómez appear below 1 percent. Blank vote 7.6 percent, I don’t know 8.8 percent unresponsive and 2.1 for none.

But while checking A final scenario for the second round, according to the poll, Petro beats the others again.
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In this scenario, when the second round was reached to face Fico, the former mayor of Bogota would hold 44.8 percent, while the Team Colombia candidate would hold 36.9 percent.

Had the competition been against Rodolfo Hernández, Petro would have been 44.1 percent and the former mayor of Bucaramanga 34.1 percent. And if it were against Fajardo, the candidate from Human Colombia would have got 43.4 percent, and the former governor of Antioquia would have got 35.8 percent.

In light of these results, it is clear that recent discussions involving Petro, such as what it has to do with so-called “social forgiveness” or a JEP for drug traffickers, do not affect his intentions. to vote.

The survey consulted 4,599 people in 101 municipalities across the country between 18 and 21 April.

Also: Challenges faced by candidates in the final episode

PERFORMER OR LEGAL PERSON: Centro Nacional de Consultoría SA
ORDERING REAL OR LEGAL PERSON: Semana Dergisi. FUNDING SOURCE: Semana magazine. THE UNIVERSE UNDER WORKING: Women and men aged 18+ who reside in Colombian municipalities and wish to vote in the next presidential election. As a statistical stratification mechanism, the 6 geographic regions were established as follows: 1 Antioquia + Coffee Region Antioquia, Caldas , Quindío and Risaralda 2 Bogotá Bogotá DC 3 Atlantic Caribbean, Bolivar,
Cesar, Córdoba, La Guajira, Magdalena, Sucre, San Andrés and Providencia 4 Pacific Cauca, Chocó, Nariño and Valle del Cauca 5 Centroriente Boyacá, Cundinamarca, Norte de Santander, Santander, Arauca and Casanare and 6 Centrosur Huila, Tolima, Meta, Caqueta and Putumayo. SAMPLE DESIGN: Sampling design is probabilistic, has four stages, and is stratified with a simple random selection of samples.
statistical units at each stage. In the first sampling phase, a municipality was selected within each geographic region (statistical stratum),
A random selection was made of some, considering Bogotá, Medellín, Cali, Barranquilla, Cartagena, Bucaramanga, Ibagué, Villavicencio and Cúcuta as mandatory inclusion municipalities in the sample of other municipalities in the universe studied.
In the second stage, a random selection of cartographic blocks was made within the municipalities in a total of 101 municipalities, the studies from the National Geostatistics Framework (sampling frame in the research) were carried out in the third stage.
In the last stage, the households within the selected cartographic blocks are selected (4 households in each block) and in the final stage, an adult in the household is chosen for statistical units,
algorithm called “negative coordinate”. The sampling framework used is the National Geostatistical Framework provided by DANE. The sampling frame is the device that allows the organization of field operation and ensures that its implementation complies with the methodological guidelines established for research. apple
Cartography in the capitals of Colombian municipalities. SAMPLE SIZE:
4,599 cases in 101 municipalities in all regions of Colombia, including Antioquia
+Coffee Region Medellín, Armenia, Manizales, Pereira, Santafé de Antioquia, Caldas, Chigorodó Fredonia Puerto Triunfo, Rionegro Santa Rosa de Osos, Yarumal Philadelphia, La Dorada, Neira, Circasia, Dosquebradas, Mistrató Sanctuary Bogotá Bogotá DC Caraget Barran Caribbean Monteria, Santa Marta, Valledupar, Sincelejo, Baranoa Puerto Colombia, Repelón, Sabanalarga, Soledad, El Carmen de Bolivar, San Pablo, Turbaco, El Copey, Ciénaga de Oro, Planeta Rica, San Antero, Maicao, Manaure, Aracataca, El Retén , Los Palmitos Pacifico Cali, Pasto, Popayán, Quibdo, Caldono Caloto, Santander de Quilichao, Ipiales, Mosquera, Túquerres Alcalá, Cartago, Florida, Palmira, Tuluá Centroriente Bucaramanga, Cúcuta, Tunja, Arauca, Chicoquimos, Rosaga Sotaquira Umbita La Palma, Mosquera, Sasaima Sibate
Soacha, Ubaté, Chinácota Villa del Rosario, Bolivar, Capitanejo El Carmen de Chucurí Floridablanca, Rionegro San Gil, Vélez, Orocué Trinidad, Villanueva Centrosur Ibagué, Neiva, Villavicencio, Florencia, Agrado, Gigante, Pitalito, Apicala, Lebanon, Honda, , Mocoa. MARGIN OF ERROR AND CONFIDENCE LEVEL:
1.4% sampling error and 95% confidence. APPLICABLE SUBJECTS: Perceptions and citizen expectations about Colombia’s social and political reality and pre-election environment. ASKED QUESTIONS:
7 questions For more details, please see the questionnaire (see attached file)
4,159 (90%) face-to-face cases and 440 (10%) telephone cases

Source: Exame

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