GenCast differs from Google’s previous model (GraphCast), which provided a single optimal forecast, by creating a group of 50 or more forecasts, each representing a possible weather scenario. This allows you to better account for uncertainties and predict more likely outcomes.
According to Google, the new system provides more accurate forecasts for both normal weather conditions and extreme events, up to 15 days ahead of the current best ECMWF ENS model. In testing on historical data, GenCast demonstrated accuracy in 97.2% of cases and 99.8% of cases with predictions exceeding 36 hours.
Google paid special attention to forecasts for tropical cyclones such as hurricanes and typhoons. GenCast is much better at predicting the paths of these dangerous storms, which is critical to providing timely warnings and saving lives.
Source: Ferra
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