Future of humanity: World population could decline from 2080

The recently published UN report “World Population Prospects 2024” points to a historic shift in the planet’s demographic transformation: “longer lives and smaller families”. Experts from the global organization delve into population projections for 237 countries predicting that the world population peak will occur earlier than previously thought.

According to estimates by the Population and Social Department of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the number of people, currently 8.2 billion, will reach about 10.3 billion by the mid-2080s, but is expected to fall to about 10.2 billion by the end of this century. This number represents 6%, or 700 million fewer people, than estimated in 2013..

“In some countries, the birth rate is now even lower than previously thought, and we are seeing slightly lower declines. In some countries, the rapid growth is in high-fertility regions,” Li Junhua, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, explained in a press release.

Why will the world population decrease?

One of the clear signs the UN report identifies of an expected population decline is that many countries around the world are experiencing fewer births — even in places with historic population growth, such as China. A population decrease of 850 thousand was recorded in 2022.

This movement has also become a trend in other parts of the world such as Japan, Thailand, Italy, Spain, Portugal and South Korea.

In other countries where early pregnancies increase birth rates, investment in the education of young people, especially girls, and increasing the age at marriage and first pregnancy These are ongoing measures that could slow population growth, according to the report..

What are the consequences of world population decline?

According to the UN administration, the population peaked early and the numbers were lower than expected, This is a “hopeful sign.” That’s because with fewer people, there is also less human impact on the environment due to reduced overall consumption.

More than a quarter of the world’s population now lives in one of 63 countries or regions where populations have peaked, including China, Russia, Japan and Germany, according to the report. Another group of 50 countries, including Brazil, Iran and Turkey, are expected to join the “crowded club” in the next 30 years.Even after this date, the populations of 120 countries (including Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States) will continue to grow.

As a result, after a certain interruption caused by the Covid pandemic, the increase in life expectancy on Earth has returned strongly, with an average longevity of 73.3 years in 2024. This number could reach 77.4 years in 2054. This growth predicts that there will be 2.2 billion people aged 65 and over by the end of the 2070s.It leaves those under 18 behind.

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