How long does it take to predict DANA: could the Valencia disaster have been avoided?

Many people complain that the consequences DANA from Valencia They could have been avoided if the warning had been given in time. It is claimed that Valencia’s radar was not working for several days and it was therefore impossible to warn the population of what would happen. This is why the necessary precautions were not taken. But is this all true?

For starters, State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) assured that the radar works correctly, since it has an emergency system in case of possible failures. Leaving this aside, it is absolutely true that the necessary precautions were not takenstarting with the fact that the majority companies They forced their employees to go to work. Some even maintained their delivery system normally. The flood caught many delivery drivers at work and many workers on their way to work. Why did the companies do this? Weren’t you warned about DANA in Valencia?

The reason why companies did this is something everyone can imagine, although it can be understood intuitively. But no one can say that the reason was the lack of signaling, since it was known for several days what could happen. DANA cannot be predicted in advance, but 4 days before Even before the floods began, many meteorologists were already warning of the risks.

How long does it take to predict DANA?

To answer this question, the first thing we must keep in mind is that the Earth’s atmosphere consists of an interconnected and chaotic system. This means that even the slightest change in atmospheric conditions can cause large changes over different time frames and scales. That’s why weather forecasts They are usually made within a few days, and we should never trust forecasts made two weeks in advance.

Sometimes, when the atmospheric situation is very stable, perhaps forecasts could be made using 7 days in advance, as explained Cursed meteorologist in 2019 Jose Miguel Viñas.

The problem is that the atmosphere is especially chaotic in autumn and spring. Therefore, this is a time when forecasts can be made with less advance notice. The Valencian DANA occurred in mid-autumn. In fact, most DANA occurs at this station. That is why forecasts cannot be made in advance.

In general, for a weather forecast to be considered reliable, it cannot be made using more than 3-5 days in advance. The rest is generally just trends. But even with 2 days notice, things can change dramatically. This must be taken into account when issuing warnings. What happened to DANA Valencia?

A special case of DANA Valencia

On October 25, 4 days before the Valencian DANA hit the region with all its force, an AEMET meteorologist Juan Jesus Gonzalez Aleman He warned on his Twitter account of what could happen.

Many users of this social network took his publication as a joke or accused him of alarmism.

On the other hand, AEMET has already red alert declared in some parts of Valencia 7:36 am on the day the flood occurred. It was already raining by this time, but the worst part of the Valencian DANA came much later. There were companies that decided to send their employees home in the middle of the morning, possibly saving the lives of many of them, since their workplaces were in some of the most flooded parts of the city.

If right at the moment when red alert If action had been taken, many deaths could have been avoided.

Like Peter and the wolf

Many people defend themselves by saying that they don’t take warnings seriously because they are usually not followed. Citing popular history, they note that the following happened: Peter and the wolf. In this story, a shepherd named Pedro always jokes with the people of his town, shouting “the wolf is coming”, although in fact it is not true. The neighbors came to his aid needlessly so many times that the day he cried out because the wolf was actually approaching, no one came to his aid, so the animal ate his flock.

This comparison refers to the fact that there are so many red alerts that they end up with nothing, that the population is already doesn’t take them seriously. But they should always be taken seriously. We have seen that the atmosphere is a chaotic system. The prognosis may develop for the better or for the worse. Therefore they take into account probabilities these extreme events, and depending on what they are, one or another warning is issued, always trying to be conservative. With something so serious It’s better to come than not to come.

This is why many alerts fail. But it’s better to keep them in mind just in case.

Could the Valencia DANA have been avoided?

We have already seen that the damage caused by DANA in Valencia could have been avoided. But could DANA?

The quick answer is no, logically. DANA – typical meteorological phenomenon autumn time, which usually occurs at the southern end of zonal currents very high in the atmosphere. Spain is located right at this point in the polar current, so DANA’s presence here is quite normal. Now, it is important to keep in mind that this is nothing more than a pocket of cold air in the upper layers surrounded by warmer air.

In order for there to be heavy rains, the water must evaporate and clouds form. And this happens more intensely the higher the sea temperature. With temperatures rising by leaps and bounds in the Mediterranean, it is not surprising that DANA is a growing concern. DANA Valencia nothing can be done But if we all do our part to combat global warming, we can prevent it from becoming so severe. Because yes, climate change exists and is already upon us. Do we really need anything more to tackle this once and for all?