Six months have passed since then Asteroid This has become the problem of the conversation of millions of people in the world. It was the month of December 2024, when 2024 It was discovered and automatically placed in List of objects close to Earth suspiciousThe field of his first observations of his careers showed that there is a risk of growing land, which reached 3.1 %. It was even placed at 3 scale of Turin, at the level at which very few asteroids appeared. Fortunately, as more observations were made, it was clear that In fact, the risk was invalidField but it was not a risk exposure to the moonThe field actually continues to grow by 4.3 %.
A group of scientists led by Andy RivinLaboratory of Applied Physics Jones Hopkins using data provided James Webb Space Telescope.
It should be noted that the impact on the moon, which will occur in 2032, is not at risk. In fact, for scientists this is a rather interesting opportunity to see firsthand how Shock craterThe field is true that 2024 is great. With his 53-67 meters, he could destroy the city in order to influence the ground. That is why he is known in colloquial speech as the destructive asteroid of the city. But on the moon it will be only another crater. It’s good that no one lives there. Still.
Why does the probability of exposure change with the moon?
When an asteroid was discovered, there was very little data about his career. Not enough observations were made. Therefore, with the first calculations Very large zone of uncertaintyThe field, that is, the area of a possible very wide impact. As the larger amount of data is obtained, this area of uncertainty becomes less. If the object follows in the area of uncertainty, when it decreases, its probability of exposure increases. This is what happened to the ground at the beginning. However, if you continue to reduce the zone of uncertainty, it is outside it, the probability becomes 0. Again, this is what happened to the ground.
The possibility of influencing the moon is different. Our companion This has not yet left the area of uncertaintyThe field even when James Webb provided much more accurate data about the trajectory of this object near the Earth. This does not mean that the accident will happen yes or yes. 4.3 % remain exposure to the low moon, but it is true that it is higher than most objects of this type that are observed.
What will happen if the 2024 asteroid collision occurs?
In fact, if the impact on the Moon of 2024 occurs, nothing serious will happen. Only one crater will be formed. A positive part, in addition to the fact that we will continue health and salvation, is that although our companion is covered with blows, brands, No one was observed in real time. If this happens, then the shocking moment can be predicted, and scientists can be Avizor’s eye. This will help us find out interesting data on the moon.
But now we cannot know much more. Data on the trajectory of asteroids can be obtained only at a certain time, when their trajectory approaches the Earth. Already leaves, so up to 4 years No longer can be received. If everything goes well, in 2028 the zone of uncertainty will be reduced again, and we will find out whether the possibility of influencing the moon continues to increase or disappear, as happened with our planet.
Source: Hiper Textual
