The pace of transition from gasoline or diesel cars to electric vehicles is happening faster than previously thought, at least in the United States. This is according to a study done recurring after reviewing the annual data that the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) releases each year.
The findings contradict statements made by Jack Hollis, director of sales for Toyota North America. The chief executive assured that the introduction of electric vehicles is not fast enough to justify the mass production of batteries. He also argued that the infrastructure was not ready to charge cars on trips.
But Hollis, in addition to unsubstantiated claims, has a conflict of interest. Historically, Toyota has been one of the companies least committed to the transition to electric mobility and renewable energy. In fact, they seem to predate the introduction of hydrogen, which is almost as polluting as gasoline if we take into account the entire production chain, which is a classic example of the Galapagos Syndrome.
Electric Vehicle Adoption Predictions Wrong
According to research recurringprojections of the introduction of electric mobility in the United States made by Boston Consulting Group they’re wrong. Every year, for four years, it happens faster than expected.
BCG in 2018 assured that by 2030 the share of use of electric vehicles in the United States will be 21%. But every year they had to increase the forecast. In 2019 it was 26%, in 2021 it jumped to 42%, and now in 2022 it is expected to be 53%. But, looking at history, it could be underestimated.
In short, the EV projections made by BCG consulting firms do not fully reflect the current reality. This is an irresistible trend that is higher, stronger and larger than anyone could have imagined. In fact, they had to double their forecasts between 2018 and 2022.
In statements to teslaratiCEO recurringScott Case explained that they see the exact same problem with other consultants. “Market adoption is faster than ever in the past. It’s not about when the transition will be completed or what the numbers say. It’s about what the best analysts predict.” […] With 2030 still eight years away, how many more times will we read the wrong estimate? What is clear is that there is only one direction in which adoption is moving.”
In the case of the study published by BSG, this was done before new US incentives for the sale and adoption of electric vehicles were approved. Thus, the acceptance rate increases even more.
The same pace of adoption can be seen across Europe, where electric vehicles are increasingly seen on the streets and motorways. With the exception of Spain, where the market share at the end of 2021 was only 2.3%. Even lower than in Portugal.
Source: Hiper Textual