The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis will worsen the inflation forecast in the absence of “miracles”

On November 28, the TsMAKP raised its inflation forecast (consumer price index). According to experts, in 2024 the figure will increase from 8.5% to 9.2-9.3%. The forecast for 2025 also worsened, from 5-5.3% to 5.85-6.15%. In 2027, as the Center expects, inflation will be 4.25% to 4.6%.

Furthermore, the center reduced the projected GDP growth rate. According to analysts, in 2024 they will rise to between 3.5 and 3.6%, compared to the 3.7-3.8% previously expected and in 2025 to 1.7-2% instead of 2.4 -2.7%.

Belousov believes that inflation is fueled by a combination of devaluation of the ruble, trade imbalance (bias towards imports) and rising investment prices against the background of an increase in Central Bank rates. He also noted that there are already “signs of a credit slowdown.”

The key reason for the rise in inflation at the moment is the superiority of imports over exports. Belousov fears that raw material prices could decline while problems with cross-border payments and logistics persist. “It is good that exports in dollars remain at least where they are. But imports in dollars will begin to grow slowly but surely,” said the expert.

The Central Bank in its medium-term forecast of October 25 indicated that in December 2024 inflation will be 8-8.5%, and in the same month of 2025, 4.5-5% year-on-year. GDP, according to the regulator, will grow between 3.5% and 4% in 2024 and between 0.5% and 1.5% in 2025.