The Central Bank expects inflation to be between 9.6% and 9.8% by the end of 2024

Gangan added that even during the remaining week until the end of the year, “some volatile factors and positions may still come into play.” Furthermore, in the first months of next year, Russians should expect a moderate increase in annual inflation due to the low base effect relative to the price increase at the beginning of last year, Gangan noted.

The peak of annual inflation should be expected in April next year, added the head of the Central Bank department, and the first half of 2025 will be marked by the predominance of disinflationary trends, which will increase as monetary conditions tighten and loans will decrease, he said. he emphasized.

“The balance of risks has not changed significantly yet. <...> We will tell how this balance was finally modified in February, and then we will directly give a quantitative forecast of inflation for 2025,” said Gangan.

On December 20, the Central Bank kept its key rate at 21%, citing a more serious tightening of monetary conditions in the Russian economy than initially expected. Most economists surveyed by RB.RU expected the Central Bank to increase the interest rate to 23%. Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Banco Alfa, admitted that the rate will immediately rise to 25% as annual inflation approaches 10%.

At the same time, the Central Bank announced the danger of lowering the key rate, since such a measure could lead to an acceleration of inflation in conditions of demand exceeding supply and labor shortages.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, at an economic meeting on December 23, called on the government to stimulate “a transition to balanced growth with low unemployment and moderate inflation.” According to the Head of State, this is a “basic condition” for the implementation of state programs and national projects.