The summer of 2023 was the hottest in the last 2000 years.

We all know that in summer 2023 Many dangerous climate records have been broken. At least in the northern hemisphere. But what we didn’t know was that these recordings were much more extreme than we could have imagined. It was originally calculated that the average temperature was 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Now, thanks to a study published in Nature, we know that these data were calculated incorrectly. In fact the temperature 2.07°С above industrial levels and that, at least recently, 2000 yearsThis summer has never been hotter.

Such conclusions were made regarding the summer of 2023 thanks to the analysis tree rings. It was clear from them that temperature data had been taken between 1850 and 1900 they were wrong. This is not strange, since the measurement techniques of that time were inaccurate compared to those used today. But, in addition, it was possible to check the evolution of temperatures in the northern hemisphere for much longer.

What’s worse is that there are already many forecasts that suggest the summer of 2024 could be worse than the summer of 2023. If this happens, we will continue to break that ominous record that will lead us to live on an increasingly suffocating planet. The only way to avoid this is to combat climate change. Because yes, the summer temperatures of 2023 were partly due to natural causes, but they were also largely due to human-caused warming.

Weather through tree trunks

If we analyze the cut tree trunk, we see a series of rings that can tell us How old are you. They grow to form a new ring every year, making them just as easy to count. But this is not the only data we can calculate. It is also possible to analyze climate changes during this time.

And there are two factors that affect the growth of a tree trunk. On the one side, age. Trees grow larger when they are younger, so the inner rings, corresponding to the first years of life, are the largest. But it also affects this growth weather, especially precipitation and temperature. This allows us to learn how the climate has changed each year through a series of calculations.

They start by subtracting the ring size from height appropriate for your age, known for its preliminary analysis of many trees, which allows the identification of patterns. After this, you should check how much the last rings have grown. That is, those that correspond to the years for which there is information from weather stations. This allows new templates to be created that can be used to calculate the temperature that existed in the years preceding the measurements.

What happened in the summer of 2023?

Tree rings allowed us to estimate that temperatures between 1850 and 1900 were lower than imprecise records at the time suggested. Therefore, we now know that the temperature difference in the summer of 2023 was greater. But it is thanks to trees that we also know that over the past 2000 years There was no worse summer than 2023.

Thanks to the rings, it was noticed that the coldest summer came after large Volcanic eruptions. They release so much ash into the atmosphere that solar radiation cannot reach the Earth’s surface as easily, causing temperatures to drop. What the trees told the scientists made sense. The coldest of these years occurred in 536 AD, and average temperatures were 3.93 ºC lower than in summer 2023.

As for the warmest summer, it usually coincides with Boy. This is a climate phenomenon associated with the warming of the Pacific Ocean, causing particularly high temperatures in the northern hemisphere. They were discovered by some fishermen in the 17th century. However, it is possible to approximately estimate when it occurred in previous years, since it develops cyclically, every 3-8 years.

The summer of 2023 was particularly warm due to El Niño, as well as climate change. If we only stick Pacific warming The temperature shouldn’t have risen so much. Just look at the warmest summer in 2,000 years, when El Niño was also present but human activity did not contribute to the warming.

What will happen in 2024?

Although El Niño is already weakensIt is expected to remain fairly active into early summer 2024. So it wouldn’t be unusual for temperature records to be broken again. Moreover, climate change continues to progress in giant strides, so global warming may once again contribute to breaking records.

Over the past 2000 years, people have developed medicines that save millions of lives every year, and invented gadgets with which we can communicate with people on the other side of the world. He also composed wonderful melodies and painted paintings that could tear apart the soul. But along the way, it destroys the only planet on which we can enjoy art, communicate with loved ones and stay healthy. All these inventions are useless if we don’t have a planet to live on. It’s worth thinking about.